Therefore Tolerance (anger or enthusiasm) equals Risk raised to the power of Outrage.
Choosing Epidemic Enthusiasm
A look at two classic historical business examples demonstrates how accurate and powerful the PIVOT model is for influencing public and individual sentiment.
McNeil Pharmaceuticals is the textbook example of risk communications after the cyanide contamination of their Tylenol product. Applying the PIVOT model, the probability of dying from a contaminated pill 100% and the impact if such 코인카지노 an event occurred and the vulnerability were both high thus each scoring 3 points. Calculating for Hazard and Risk yields a Hazard score of 6 with a Risk score of 6. The Expectation of the general public was also high (3 points) as there had never before been a significant problem with a McNeil product.
When the company responded by publicly withdrawing the product from the market and pledging to not return to store shelves until safety could be assured, Satisfaction was moderate (2 points). But, when McNeil made good on their promises, Satisfaction was high (3 points). Outrage, which could have crippled the company's return to the marketplace, was effectively reduced to zero.
When Outrage is zero (Expectation = Satisfaction), the Tolerance score always equal to 1. (Mathematically, any number raised to the power of zero equals 1).
The textbook contrast to McNeil / Tylenol is New Coke / Classic Coke. The Coca-Cola Company dominated the cola market for decades when market research began to show that Pepsi cola was eroding a small percentage of Coke's market share. In a carefully researched and planned effort to regain that small market share loss, the Coca-Cola Company reformulated Coca-Cola. Again applying the PIVOT model, the probability of bringing the new product to market was 100%, but market research and focus groups had found that the Impact would be minimal (1 point) although the Vulnerability to the Impact moderate (2 points). Calculating or Hazard and Risk yields a Hazard score of 3 and a Risk score of 3.
When the new formulation arrived on store shelves, Expectation was high (3 points), but Satisfaction with the new formula was nonexistent (0 points). The Tolerance score of 27 predicts what followed. Consumers began to hoard "old Coke" and picket against "New Coke." Re-examining the anticipated Impact and Vulnerability shows that loyalty to the taste of the "old Coke" formula meant that the both Impact and Vulnerability were actually each 3 points, thus Hazard was 6, Risk was 6 and Tolerance was 216 (highest possible score). Despite the reintroduction of "old Coke" as "Classic Coke," it was years before the Satisfaction score rose and the Tolerance score exponentially fell.
When Outrage is a positive number (Expectation > Satisfaction), the Tolerance score is a reflection of the Anger (negative image) felt towards the business.
But this is not the end of the New Coke / Classic Coke story. An unintended, but not unexpected beneficiary of the Coca-Cola Company's misstep was Pepsi cola. Regardless of the success or failure of the new Coca-Cola formulation, the probability of the product making to store shelves was 100%. Had Coca-Cola's market research been correct, the Impact on Pepsi cola would have been high (3 points) and as the number two product in the marketplace, Pepsi's vulnerability was also high (3 points). Pepsi cola had a lot riding on Coke's reformulation with a Hazard score of 6 and a Risk score of 6.
When "New Coke" disappointed Coke consumers, Pepsi consumers were heartened by the fact that Pepsi was NOT being reformulated. The Expectation for a change in flavor was nonexistent (0 points) while Satisfaction remained high (3 points). For Pepsi cola, the Outrage score was negative (-3) yielding a Tolerance score of 216, but unlike Coca-Cola customers, Pepsi customers were predictably enthusiastic about their preferred product. Same event, same reality, different outcome based on perspective and expectation.
When Outrage is a negative number (Satisfaction > Expectation), the Tolerance score is a reflection of the Enthusiasm (positive image) felt towards the business.
Manage What is Manageable
Ultimately, Probability, Impact, Vulnerability, Perception and Reality cannot be changed. Of all the factors that determine public and individual sentiment and predict anger verses enthusiasm, Expectation is the only factor that can be changed before and to a lesser degree during an event or experience. Thus if Expectation can be preemptively made to matched reality, Outrage is changed. Through expectation management, Anger is downgraded to Concern; Concern is converted to Opportunity; and Opportunity is upgraded to Enthusiasm.
The Coca Cola history extends back to 1885, when John Pemberton invented the original recipe for a new cocawine. He named it Pemberton's French Wine Coca, which was believed to be inspired by Vin Mariani, a popular cocawine invented by Angelo Mariani. Pemberton developed Coca-Cola, a non-alcoholic version of his original cocawine, when Fulton County passed prohibition legislation. Carbonated water was added later by accident when Pemberton was mixing drinks for a friend and incidentally included it. His friends loved the new taste, so he altered the original formula to incorporate it.
Coca-Cola was said to cure many diseases, including headaches, impotence, and the powerful morphine addiction. Three versions of Coca-Cola were on the market by 1888, sold by three separate companies. One company, Candler, purchased exclusive rights to the Coca-Cola formula from Woolfolk Walker, John Pemberton, and Margaret Dozier to cut out the competition.
This made the first big break in Coca Cola history. Candler incorporated The Coca-Cola Company in 1982, and began marketing the product. The drink achieved the status of national icon for the USA by its 50th anniversary. Bottles of Coca-Cola were sold starting in 1894, and cans in 1955. The first bottle was sold in Vicksburg, Mississippi. In 1899, Chattanooga, Tennessee became the first site of a Coca-Cola bottling company.
In Pemberton's original formula, he added five ounces of coca leaf (cocaine) per gallon of syrup. Candler claimed that he altered the formula and only added a tenth of the amount. Coca Cola once contained an estimate of nine milligrams of cocaine per glass. It wasn't until 1903 that it was removed from the drink altogether, replacing it with coca flavoring.
"New Coke" came out in 1985 after Coca-Cola attempted to change the original formula. Most consumers preferred the taste of the original Coca-Cola, and many ceased purchasing the product until the company switched back to the original formula. It was renamed Coca Cola Classic to show consumers that the drink had reverted back to its original formula.
By the 21st century, Coca Cola history took another leap in the market. In 2005, the company launched "Diet Coke", sweetened with artificial flavors. Later in 2005, it announced "Coca Cola Zero", sweetened with aspartame and acesulfame potassium. Since then, the company has produced other products containing the same Coca-Cola formula with minor differences.
Coca Cola is now being sold around the world, in more than 200 different countries. The Coca-Cola company now sponsors an assortment of events, including the "Olympic Games", and "NASCAR". In England, it is the primary sponsor of "The Football League". It is also featured in several television shows including "The Gods Must Be Crazy."
Coca Cola history has come a long way since Pemberton invented the original recipe, and continues to grow by leaps and bounds. It is no surprise that it is one of the leading soft drinks of the market.